A Hedge Fund Billionaire Gives His Thoughts On The Cycle
Ray Dalio has a theory on the cycle of political collapse that he calls “The Changing World Order”. He has numerous books, videos, and websites dedicated to the theory.
In simple terms, it looks like this:
But it is completely wrong.
I have said it before, and I will certainly be forced to say it again:
- Political collapse does not occur because of a material decline.
Political collapse happens because of a spiritual decline.
The material decline can be seen and quantified only after the spiritual side falls away.
Concepts like this are dangerous, because they lull gullible people into a prideful sense of understanding what causes the cycle of collapse using a corrupted Enlightenment and materialist perspective.
Everything Dalio shows is a lagging indicator. It is not the cause, but the effect.
Which means if you buy into theories like this, you’ll always be about a dozen steps behind the curve. You won’t see the real collapse coming until it’s too late, because the disease is already manifested. We won’t be able to develop actual solutions, because we don’t actually recognize the real problem.
At the end of the day, Ray Dalio is a materialist. He only sees things like profit, production, and GDP. Dalio does not see the great spiritual degeneration of the United States that led to those.
He never stops to ask why the “strong culture” disappeared, or why the enormous debts happen, or how the internal conflict was cultivated. The symptom is categorized as the disease, which is completely backwards.
The patient has the beginnings of cancer, but Dalio diagnoses the patient with fatigue. He slaps a band-aid on a bullet wound, not realizing how deep the true trauma goes.
Which then leads him to the absolutely hilarious and ludicrous assertion that the cycle of political collapse happens because of things like “reduced production…income inequality…losing competitiveness…”.
These are supposedly the worst things that can happen to a land—All economic losses! How convenient for a market guy like Dalio to uncover.
This is a (subtle, but nice-sounding) libertariany, “market-god” type belief where the market and the economy drive everything.
He never outright says the conclusion, but it is not difficult to find if you take his rationale to its logical conclusion: You see, if you’re not a good wage-slave for Dalio’s corporations, the cycle of political collapse is going to occur. Back to the factory you go.
We have two choices: either focus everything on the material economy or it all collapses. Sorry chump, you just have to go with it and let us market guys run things, you get it?
His “solutions” to the cycle then end up being an actual factor of the disease itself: spiritual decay, a degenerative focus on the material over the spiritual. Greed. Placing the material above things that actually matter like family, faith, culture, and community.
In Dalio’s Enlightenment-riddled mind, the highest form of the state is to focus on production, markets, income growth, and such. Nothing that actually matters to truly sustain a nation-state.
It is a shame, but if you’re not market-driven and do not worship Dalio’s market god, then the inevitable result is political collapse. Sorry, you just have to worship Mammon or else the whole thing falls apart.
Sarcasm aside, and luckily for us, Dalio’s theory is obviously untrue.
Let’s look at his main three decline factors (income inequality, production loss, and losing competitiveness):
- Some of the strongest nations in history had massive income inequality at build-up and peaks. In fact, most Western European nations did. The thing that caused their respective collapse was not “income inequality”, but that during the good times, the leaders were still spiritually united to their people and the overall soul of the nation was harmonious. However, when that falls, then the people get upset about the material conditions, which leads to what Dalio predicts happens organically. But no one actually cares about the elites having marginally more than the non-elites if the society is culturally healthy, everyone has the basics of what they need, and a nation is spiritually satisfied. It’s when the spirit falls that the material worsens and the material becomes the primary show. In short, income inequality becomes a problem when the nation-state is culturally/spiritually broken and disunited. When it is not, there is no problem.
- The same goes for “production loss”. Some of the happiest and most stable states in history did not give a single iota of sh*t about their markets. The economy is not the end of everything; it’s a means to an end. If we had a nation that was culturally normal, demographically sound, well-managed politically, and secure from outside threats, no one would actually care at all about our production levels. No one is going to riot because production decreases. And again, this misses the root issue: production decreases because the people originally stop caring as much because the society has already degenerated, therefore causing fewer people to be as engaged and active in building society. The lagging indicator is shown here as the root problem. The actual root problem is spiritual and cultural, but Dalio presents it as material, as only Enlightenment billionaires could do.
- “Losing competitiveness” is no different. Why did we lose competitiveness? Because of internal discord and allowances to foreign entities over a strict nationalism of our own kind. Why did those happen? Because some condition changed with the culture/soul/demographics that stabilized the state originally.
If you read Dalio’s book, you quickly pick up on the fact that he pretty much just looked around at the United States, categorized whatever material things he could find as a symptom of a collapse, and then looked up other historical states and did what he could to force them to fit his mold. He did not earnestly go seeking for true root causes, but rather for confirmation of his theory on the United States’ decline. You can even see that in the chart above, if you care to compare.
“Strong markets” is really the key that gives it all away in the theory: Ray Dalio is a market guy. He is a libertarian type that worships the market and believes that “if we just leave the market alone, it will magically, divinely, solve all of our problems”. This is an Enlightenment dogma that has been indoctrinated into people that borders on a new religion, which is why I always refer to it as the market-god belief. They literally treat the market like an all-knowing, all-solving deity.
The reality is that the market is a tool like anything else, and is not of elevated importance compared to other tools. But it is of elevated importance in Mammon worship, which is why our Christendom was replaced with capitalism worship. And if we want to fix modernity, part of that solution must be in rejecting the shiny golden market-god and returning to the true God. This does mean shelving the market worship, which I do know is market heresy for some (sorry libertarians).
To make this incredibly simple: The true political cycle of collapse begins with the spiritual. It ends with the material.
Read this to get a better grasp of what I am saying: The Origins Of A National Collapse.
If you only see the material, you are always a dozen steps behind.
This is why on the true political cycle of collapse, when you start to see materialists creating graphs like these, you know you are already on the downward spiral, because you’re seeing the materialists finally pick up on it.
Which means we are really far in to this political collapse. Brace yourself.
Now I know what you’re thinking. “Kaisar,” you say, “Why should I care? It’s not that big of a deal. Dalio is pretty close to the mark, so what is the big deal?”
The reason this is such an important topic is twofold: 1) Dalio and other materialist theorists are going to cause this to keep happening, because they don’t see the true root cause and 2) They are subtlely getting you to agree with the Enlightenment foundational framework of materialism above all else.
We cannot worship the libertarian market-god and expect the state to stay intact because production is high and income inequality is low. That’s not how it works. The disease is spiritual. To prevent it, you need a spiritual remedy. The only way to find that remedy is to seek beyond the current materialist belief system. That requires stepping outside of the Enlightenment framework. Dalio prevents both from occurring, and this even happens with dissidents.
Dalio’s approach directly takes us away from that correct solution by pointing to an inaccurate problem.
A big reason you have all of these weird pagan national socialist types is because of this effect: they worship the material race. It is also why libertarians exist. Oh, and it’s also why neo-cons keep conning the general conservative base. Then there are the green party literal material worshippers. The list goes on.
All of these groups are trapped in the Enlightenment mindset of materialism above all else. They just cannot seem to break out of this cage.
But Dalio is especially problematic because his theory gives an ounce of truth that people latch on to. He is not stupid; the man is brilliant and knows how to get people to buy-in to his schemes. If he wasn’t, he wouldn’t be a successful hedge fund manager. His theory seems right; it gives just enough detail that makes you go “Yeah, that looks good” if you don’t look into it too deep. Without further study, many people just accept it and move on.
It is insidious lies like these that then subvert our very core foundational beliefs unwillingly and unknowingly.
Dissidents are trying to overthrow this wicked system and install something better. We can’t do that by reinventing Enlightenment lies in our own image, which is what materialists hope to do. They will fail just as the others did. Returning to our original worship of the market-god in an age past will not fix our problems, just as Israel returning to Moloch and Baal repeatedly did not solve their problems.
We have to go above, but we cannot do that if we are filled with these insidious, sneaky lies from billionaire hedge fund materialists.
If you read material like this, you can see the truth. So rise above these lies.
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